By Joe Lorkowski,Vladik Kreinovich
This ebook addresses an fascinating query: are our judgements rational? It explains probably irrational human decision-making habit through considering our constrained skill to technique info. It additionally exhibits with numerous examples that optimization below granularity restrict results in saw human decision-making. Drawing at the Nobel-prize-winning reviews through Kahneman and Tversky, researchers have came upon many examples of doubtless irrational judgements: e.g., we overestimate the chance of infrequent events.
Our clarification is that on account that human talents to approach details are constrained, we function now not with the precise values of proper amounts, yet with “granules” that include those values. We express that optimization lower than such granularity certainly results in saw human habit. specifically, for the 1st time, we clarify the mysterious empirical dependence of making a bet odds on real probabilities.
This publication may be suggested to all scholars attracted to human decision-making, to researchers whose paintings consists of human judgements, and to practitioners who layout and hire structures related to human decision-making —so that they could greater make the most of our skill to make judgements lower than uncertainty.
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Bounded Rationality in Decision Making Under Uncertainty: Towards Optimal Granularity (Studies in Systems, Decision and Control) by Joe Lorkowski,Vladik Kreinovich